TL;DR

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both hit fresh all-time highs on Friday, May 1, lifted by Apple's blockbuster fiscal Q2 2026 earnings beat. Oil fell sharply as Iran submitted a new peace proposal to the US, easing some of the energy shock that has weighed on markets for weeks. However, President Trump later said he is "not satisfied" with the proposal, causing oil to partially reverse those gains. Bitcoin bounced alongside the broader risk-on mood. As of approximately 4:00 p.m. ET on May 1, traders are digesting record equity levels, $100-plus oil, and an Iran standoff that is far from over.

What Happened: S&P 500 Record High on Apple Earnings Beat

Apple reported its fiscal second-quarter 2026 results after the close on Thursday, April 30, and the numbers were strong. The company posted revenue of $111.2 billion, up 17 percent year over year and above analyst estimates of roughly $109.5 billion. Earnings per share came in at $2.01, beating consensus of about $1.94, while net profit reached $29.6 billion. Gross margin expanded to 49.3 percent from 47.1 percent a year earlier. Services revenue hit another all-time record. iPhone revenue set a March-quarter record, though it narrowly missed analyst expectations for the second time in three quarters. Apple also authorized an additional $100 billion in share repurchases and raised its dividend to $0.27 per share.

Apple shares rose more than 3 percent on the open Friday, carrying the Nasdaq Composite up 1.1 percent to an intraday record of 25,163.49. The S&P 500 added 0.6 percent to 7,254.82, building on its first-ever close above 7,200, set on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1 percent to 49,668.

Separately, oil prices fell during the session as Iran reportedly sent a new proposal through Pakistani mediators to the latest US draft agreement to end the Middle East conflict. Brent crude slid about 2 percent to trade above $108 a barrel, and West Texas Intermediate fell roughly 3 percent to around $101 a barrel. Both benchmarks had touched multi-year highs on Thursday, with Brent briefly reaching $126 -- the highest since 2022 -- on concerns that the US naval blockade of Iranian ports and Iran's near-shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could last for months.

Later Friday, President Trump told reporters he is "not satisfied" with Iran's new offer. Oil pared some of its earlier losses following that comment.

Why Markets Moved

Apple's earnings removed a key overhang. The stock had underperformed much of Big Tech this year on concerns about iPhone demand and margin pressure from the tariff environment. Results that were broad-based -- double-digit revenue growth across every geographic segment, as CEO Tim Cook described -- reassured investors that consumer spending on premium hardware remains resilient. The $100 billion buyback authorization also signaled strong confidence from management in the company's cash position.

The oil pullback added a second tailwind. Lower energy costs reduce input costs for corporate America, ease inflation pressure, and raise the odds that the Federal Reserve can eventually cut rates. Stocks had already rallied sharply through April -- making it the best month for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since 2020 -- mostly because investors chose to look past the Iran war and focus on strong corporate earnings. Friday's session extended that posture.

However, Trump's afternoon comment that he is unsatisfied with Iran's proposal introduced fresh uncertainty. The Strait of Hormuz accounts for roughly 20 percent of global oil transit. Until a deal is reached, the market will remain sensitive to any signal that the conflict is far from resolution.

Implications for Traders

Equity traders: The S&P 500 is now above 7,200 for the first time, and all three major US indices are well above where they began 2026 despite the Iran war shock. The earnings season has been the decisive driver. With most of the mega-cap reporting cycle now behind us, near-term direction may depend on macro data -- particularly May inflation readings and Fed commentary.

Oil and energy futures traders: WTI and Brent remain structurally elevated. Even with today's pullback, both benchmarks are roughly 40 to 50 percent above their pre-conflict levels. Any progress toward a Hormuz agreement could produce a sharp further drop; any escalation could quickly push Brent back toward $120. The divergence between WTI and Brent has also widened, with Brent carrying a roughly $7 premium, reflecting logistics disruption for non-US buyers.

Crypto traders: Bitcoin reclaimed $77,000 this week, tracking broader risk sentiment. A sustained equity rally and lower oil-driven inflation expectations are supportive of BTC, though the correlation to tech stocks means any abrupt equity reversal would likely drag crypto lower.

Potential Positives vs Negatives

Positives:

  • Apple's results suggest the consumer and enterprise tech spending cycle remains intact despite tariff headwinds.
  • Iran peace talks are progressing through back channels; even a partial easing of the Hormuz situation would provide meaningful relief to oil markets and broader inflation.
  • April's equity rally -- best monthly performance since 2020 -- has rebuilt confidence and brought all three major indices to positive territory for the year.
  • Lower oil prices, if sustained, reduce the risk of a Fed hike and support corporate margins.

Negatives:

  • Trump's dissatisfaction with Iran's proposal suggests a deal may still be weeks away. Oil could retest $120-plus Brent if talks stall.
  • Q1 GDP came in at 2.0 percent, below forecasts, alongside hotter-than-expected inflation. That stagflationary combination limits the Fed's room to cut and could reassert itself in coming data.
  • iPhone revenue missed analyst estimates for the second time in three quarters, hinting at demand softness that the broader services beat may eventually be unable to offset.
  • Stocks are now at all-time highs with an active geopolitical war in the background. Any surprise escalation -- military or diplomatic breakdown -- would reprice risk assets quickly.

What Could Happen From Here

Base scenario (50-55% probability): Iran-US back-channel talks make incremental progress over the next one to two weeks. Oil hovers in the $95-110 WTI range. Equities consolidate near current levels; the S&P 500 trades between 7,100 and 7,350. Bitcoin holds around $75,000-$82,000. Confirmed by: no Trump escalation statements; oil not re-testing $115; more earnings beats from mid-cap tech names.

Upside scenario (20-25% probability): A formal ceasefire or preliminary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is announced. Oil drops $15-25 in a session. Equities rally 2-4 percent on the inflation-relief narrative. Bitcoin could push toward $90,000. Confirmed by: a joint statement from US and Iranian representatives; energy futures rolling over below $90 WTI.

Downside scenario (20-25% probability): Talks collapse, Trump imposes tighter sanctions or threatens military escalation, and Iran responds by fully blockading remaining Hormuz traffic. Brent tests $130 and beyond. The S&P 500 reverses toward 6,800-7,000. Bitcoin falls with risk assets. Confirmed by: Trump announcing new military operations; Iran rejecting further negotiations publicly; Brent above $125 again.

What to Watch Next (Next 24 Hours)

  • Official US response to Iran's proposal: The State Department or White House may issue a formal statement over the weekend. Any signal that a deal framework is close would be the single biggest market-moving development.
  • Oil price behavior in Asian and European sessions: WTI and Brent price action Sunday evening / Monday morning will set the tone for equity futures.
  • Bitcoin weekend trading: Crypto markets are open 24/7. Watch whether BTC holds above $75,000 support over the weekend as a sentiment gauge.
  • Fed speaker commentary: Several FOMC members are scheduled to speak in the coming days. Any hint at a policy shift in response to the stagflationary GDP/CPI mix would move rates and equities.
  • Energy sector earnings: Several US refiners and energy companies report next week. Their guidance on margin impact from the oil shock will be closely watched.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did stocks rise even though there is an active US-Iran war?

Markets are primarily pricing corporate earnings and forward growth expectations, not geopolitical risk in isolation. As long as earnings remain strong and investors believe the Iran conflict will eventually be resolved, they have continued to bid up equities. That said, the risk premium is visible in elevated oil prices and volatility in energy stocks.

What does the Strait of Hormuz closure mean for oil prices?

The Strait of Hormuz is the world's most important oil chokepoint, carrying roughly 20 percent of global oil supply. Iran's near-shutdown of the strait, combined with the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, has removed significant supply from global markets. Analysts warn that if the closure persists into June and beyond, oil storage constraints could force prices significantly higher, with some projections approaching historical highs near $150 per barrel.

Sources

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Header image source: pexels by Rene Terp. License: PEXELS.