As of 2:15 p.m. ET, Tuesday, May 5, 2026.

TL;DR

  • The Nasdaq Composite hit a new all-time intraday high on Tuesday, gaining 1% as oil prices retreated and a wave of earnings beats drove broad buying.
  • The S&P 500 rose 0.9% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 314 points, with the broad index on track to test its May 1 closing record near 7,230.
  • DuPont de Nemours (DD) and Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) each gained 8% after beating quarterly estimates. Micron Technology (MU) added 5% on strong AI chip demand.
  • West Texas Intermediate crude fell roughly 4% to around $101 per barrel and Brent crude lost 3% toward $109 after the U.S. Defense Department confirmed the Iran ceasefire remains intact.
  • The oil relief removed a key headwind that had dragged markets sharply lower on Monday.

What Happened: Nasdaq Sets New All-Time High Amid Oil Relief and Earnings Beats

U.S. equities surged Tuesday afternoon after two reinforcing catalysts converged: oil prices pulled back sharply from their Monday spike, and a batch of corporate earnings results came in well ahead of estimates.

The Nasdaq Composite crossed into record territory intraday, extending the index's 2026 advance despite oil prices that remain more than 50% above year-ago levels. The S&P 500 added 0.9% and was on track to surpass its all-time closing high of 7,230.12, set last Friday, May 1.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth confirmed Tuesday morning that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire "certainly holds," easing the tail-risk scenario that had pushed oil above $114 per barrel on Monday. Two U.S. commercial ships and American destroyers transited the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate the lane remains open for commerce, helping Brent crude retreat toward $109 and WTI toward $101.

The earnings news added to the upbeat tone. DuPont de Nemours (DD) and Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD) each jumped 8% after reporting first-quarter results that beat both revenue and earnings estimates. Micron Technology (MU) rose 5%, boosted by reports that its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) products used in AI servers are sold out through 2026 and multiple analyst price target upgrades. Intel (INTC) also set a new all-time high on reports of early chip manufacturing talks with Apple, as covered earlier today.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR) was the notable exception, dropping 6% despite reporting its fastest revenue growth since going public in 2020. The stock's premium valuation continues to weigh on the shares even when fundamentals exceed expectations, a pattern we covered in detail in our Palantir Q1 earnings breakdown.

Why Markets Moved

Monday's selloff was driven by two fears: that Iranian attacks on the UAE would fracture the ceasefire and reignite full-scale combat, and that oil above $110 per barrel would deepen inflation and keep the Federal Reserve on hold indefinitely. Both of those fears eased on Tuesday.

With the ceasefire confirmed intact and commercial shipping resuming in the Strait of Hormuz, energy risk premiums partially unwound. That gave equity investors room to refocus on the underlying corporate earnings story, which has been broadly constructive throughout the first-quarter reporting season.

Technology shares led the advance, aided by Intel's reported Apple chip talks and by Micron's AI chip sellout news. The combination of software and hardware demand signals kept the Nasdaq above its previous record close. For a full breakdown of the geopolitical energy backdrop driving these swings, see our Hormuz Risk Watch post.

Implications for Traders

Equity and Futures Traders

The Nasdaq's new all-time high, reached against a backdrop of $100+ oil, signals that equity markets are for now discounting geopolitical risk in favor of earnings momentum. The S&P 500 remains within striking distance of a new closing record, which could attract index-level buying from systematic strategies near the close.

Index futures traders should note that the Iran-related ceasefire has been described as "fragile" by multiple officials. Any new flare-up in the Strait of Hormuz or a resumption of missile exchanges could quickly reverse today's oil-driven relief rally.

Commodity and Energy Traders

Brent crude at $109 remains historically elevated. The pullback from $114 reflects ceasefire relief rather than a structural demand shift. Treating the current dip as a risk-premium unwind rather than a trend reversal is the more defensible read, particularly with Iran's IRGC still asserting new shipping corridors and warning vessels of a "decisive response" to non-compliance.

Crypto Traders

Bitcoin (BTC) held above $80,000 and briefly crossed $81,000 on Tuesday as broader risk appetite improved alongside equities. Crypto markets are benefiting from both the geopolitical easing and ongoing CLARITY Act momentum, which brought a bipartisan Senate stablecoin compromise last week that cleared a long-standing roadblock to U.S. digital asset regulation.

Potential Positives vs Negatives

Positives

  • Nasdaq setting a fresh record while oil is above $100 signals that corporate earnings are strong enough to partially absorb the energy shock.
  • A confirmed ceasefire and first Hormuz commercial transit are early steps toward easing global supply-chain bottlenecks.
  • Multiple sectors, including industrials, consumer staples, and technology, are contributing to gains, suggesting broad market participation rather than a narrow rally.
  • If oil continues to pull back as the Strait reopens incrementally, inflation expectations could fall and revive rate-cut hopes for later in 2026.

Negatives

  • The ceasefire remains fragile. Iran's IRGC has not acknowledged U.S. transit operations as legitimate and continues issuing corridor warnings to shipping.
  • Oil above $100 per barrel keeps inflation structurally elevated. PCE inflation ran 3.5% year-on-year through March 2026, and energy prices are a key contributor.
  • Palantir's 6% drop despite a record revenue beat is a reminder that high-multiple names remain vulnerable to even minor guidance disappointments.
  • The broader earnings season may be peaking in positive surprises, reducing the incremental tailwind for equities going forward.

What Could Happen From Here

Base case (50-55% probability): The ceasefire holds through the week, oil drifts lower toward $95-$100 as limited Hormuz traffic resumes, and the S&P 500 sets a new all-time closing record within the next two to three sessions. Earnings continue to deliver moderate beats without enough guidance upgrades to push multiples significantly higher. This scenario confirms on continued commercial ship transits without incident. It invalidates if fresh missile attacks occur or the IRGC seizes a vessel.

Upside case (20-25% probability): A formal ceasefire expansion or diplomatic contact between U.S. and Iranian officials triggers a more sustained oil drop toward $85-$90 per barrel. That removes the inflation headwind more fully, eases bond yields, and sends the Nasdaq toward 22,000. Confirms on official diplomatic communication or a formal ceasefire extension announcement. Invalidates on renewed IRGC military activity.

Downside case (20-25% probability): The ceasefire breaks down. A new attack on U.S. vessels or a major energy facility in the Gulf pushes Brent back above $115 per barrel. The S&P 500 pulls back 1.5-2% from current levels, erasing today's gains. Inflation expectations re-accelerate, and the Federal Reserve's hands-off posture hardens further. Confirms on an IRGC vessel seizure or a confirmed strike on UAE infrastructure. Invalidates on a formal U.S.-Iran communication channel opening.

What to Watch Next (Next 24 Hours)

  • Hormuz transit count: Whether additional commercial vessels safely transit the strait under U.S. protection is the clearest real-time signal of whether the blockade is easing.
  • Oil price follow-through: A sustained move in WTI below $100 per barrel would be a meaningful positive for inflation and equity sentiment. A reversal back above $110 would raise fresh concerns.
  • S&P 500 closing level: A new all-time closing high above 7,230 would confirm broad market strength and could trigger additional systematic inflows.
  • After-hours earnings: Any major post-close reports could set the tone for Wednesday. Watch guidance commentary on energy cost exposure in particular.
  • Iran and IRGC statements: Any formal Tehran response to the U.S. transit operations will signal whether today's ceasefire-holds message has real diplomatic backing or is tactical posturing.

Frequently Asked Questions

Q: Why did the Nasdaq hit an all-time high when oil is still above $100 per barrel?
A: Equity markets price future earnings, not current costs. The Q1 earnings season has shown that many large U.S. companies can absorb higher energy costs through pricing power and operational efficiency. As long as the ceasefire holds and oil does not re-spike sharply, investors are looking through the energy shock at underlying profit trends.

Q: Does a Nasdaq record high mean the market is ignoring the Iran war?
A: Not entirely. The market dropped sharply on Monday when the ceasefire appeared to be fracturing. Tuesday's recovery shows markets are not ignoring the war, but are repricing quickly as new information arrives. The risk premium is still present in elevated oil prices and options volatility, even as index levels recover.

Sources

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