TL;DR

  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a record 13-session outflow streak on Friday, logging a $3.05 million net inflow after shedding $4.4 billion since May 15.
  • BTC trades near $62,875, down roughly 20% from its mid-May peak. The crypto market cap sits at $2.17 trillion with extreme fear dominating sentiment readings.
  • Nasdaq 100 futures are off about 1% ahead of the May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report due at 8:30 a.m. ET, as a Broadcom-led chip selloff continues to weigh on tech.
  • Oil holds above $97 with Hormuz disruptions ongoing. Reports from Friday morning point to an explosion near an Oman terminal and Iran rerouting crude through Iraq to bypass the blockade.

What Happened: Bitcoin ETF Outflows End, NFP in Focus

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first net inflow in two weeks on Friday morning. The $3.05 million figure, reported by CoinDesk as of 9:03 a.m. ET, ends 13 consecutive sessions of net redemptions that pulled more than $4.4 billion from the products since May 15, according to Galaxy Research data cited by BeInCrypto. That was the longest consecutive outflow streak since these products launched in January 2024. Over those 13 sessions, the funds shed approximately 59,351 BTC.

The primary driver behind the selling has been institutional capital rotation. Analysis from KuCoin points to money leaving Bitcoin and moving into AI-related equities and high-profile IPOs. Bitcoin itself sits near $62,875 as of early Friday, off roughly 14% for the week and about 20% below mid-May highs. At ChartDojo, we flagged this institutional repositioning trend in late May when the then-8-day streak was already reshaping on-chain dynamics, as covered in our earlier analysis of the ETF outflow pattern. The broader crypto market cap has contracted to $2.17 trillion.

Friday also brings the May Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report at 8:30 a.m. ET, the most important labor-market data release of the month. Economists forecast between 80,000 and 105,000 jobs added, a meaningful slowdown from April. Nasdaq 100 futures were down 0.95% and S&P 500 futures were down 0.42% as of 5:45 a.m. ET, per TipRanks, with a chip selloff stemming from Broadcom's earnings miss continuing to drag on tech. Broadcom shares dropped as much as 15% Thursday after the company reiterated rather than raised its 2026 AI chip revenue guidance, signaling potential moderation in the AI infrastructure spend cycle.

The Iran conflict provides the overarching macro backdrop. The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman through which roughly one-fifth of global oil supply normally flows, remains disrupted. Fresh reports on Friday morning from Hindustan Times cite an explosion near an Oman terminal and suggest Iran is redirecting crude shipments through Iraq's Basra port to bypass the blockade. Hezbollah separately rejected the latest ceasefire proposal, prompting Israeli strikes on southern Lebanese villages and adding complexity to the de-escalation timeline. Reuters reported Thursday that perceived progress on a ceasefire had briefly lifted the Dow to a record close. For earlier context on the Hormuz situation, see our Iran and Hormuz risk watch from May.

Why Markets Are Moving This Way

ETF redemptions require authorized participants to sell actual Bitcoin to generate the cash needed for investor exits. That created steady, mechanical selling pressure across 13 sessions. Its end removes that consistent seller from the order flow, which is a structural positive even when the initial inflow amount is thin.

The Nasdaq pressure reflects two converging forces. Broadcom's guidance miss raises questions about the pace of AI chip spending in the second half of 2026, and the pending NFP number introduces uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate-cut timing. A weak jobs figure generally supports rate-cut pricing, which tends to lift growth stocks. A strong figure does the opposite and can extend sector rotation from tech into value and cyclicals.

Oil's persistence above $97 reflects constrained Hormuz supply combined with ceasefire talks that have repeatedly stalled. Analysts at Heygotrade project Brent crude will hold a $90-100 range through 2026 and into 2027, even if the strait eventually reopens, as global supply chains are being restructured around the disruption.

Implications for Traders

Crypto traders

The end of the ETF outflow streak is the most actionable development for Bitcoin positions this morning. Sustained inflows over the next two to three sessions would represent the first structural green flag in nearly three weeks. For now, BTC remains below all major moving averages. The $60,000 level is near-term support; a close below it on elevated volume would likely bring a fresh wave of stop-loss selling from leveraged accounts.

Equity and futures traders

The 8:30 a.m. NFP number is the session's hinge point. A print at the soft end of estimates (below 80,000) would accelerate rate-cut pricing and could spark a tech relief bounce. A strong print (above 105,000) would likely extend the sector rotation seen Thursday, when the Dow surged 875 points to a record close while the Nasdaq fell. Chip stocks are the most sensitive area to watch in the first hour after the open.

Commodities and macro traders

Oil's $90-100 range looks durable regardless of near-term ceasefire progress. The Oman terminal explosion reports add short-term upside risk to Brent. Watch the VIX (a measure of expected U.S. stock-market volatility) as a leading indicator of broader risk appetite heading into the weekend.

Potential Positives vs Negatives

Positives

  • The end of the 13-day BTC ETF outflow streak removes the most consistent mechanical selling pressure seen since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched.
  • A soft NFP print could accelerate Fed rate-cut pricing, supporting both growth equities and crypto assets simultaneously.
  • The Dow's record close Thursday shows real demand for value and cyclical names even amid geopolitical friction, which points to underlying economic resilience.
  • Ceasefire talks remain active, and per Axios the proposed framework includes terms for a 60-day truce and Hormuz reopening. Confirmed progress would sharply reduce the oil risk premium.

Negatives

  • One session of thin ETF inflows does not reverse a structural trend. The $4.4 billion outflow total has meaningfully reduced institutional Bitcoin exposure over the past three weeks.
  • Broadcom's guidance miss signals potential moderation in AI chip spending, a headwind for Nasdaq valuations and the broader AI trade that has powered tech gains this year.
  • Hezbollah's ceasefire rejection and Israeli strikes on Lebanon introduce new regional complexity, keeping the oil risk premium elevated and the safe-haven trade active.
  • An upside NFP surprise would delay rate-cut expectations and could extend selling pressure across growth equities and crypto simultaneously.

What Could Happen From Here

Base case (most likely over the next 24-72 hours): NFP comes in near the middle of the expected range, around 85,000-95,000 jobs. Markets read it as consistent with a gradual slowdown and a September Fed rate cut. The Nasdaq stabilizes after the data, the Dow holds near record levels, and BTC consolidates between $61,000 and $65,000. ETF inflows tick modestly positive for a second day. Confirm by: Nasdaq closes flat to slightly positive and BTC ends the week above $62,000. Invalidate if: NFP surprises sharply in either direction.

Upside scenario: A soft NFP below 80,000, combined with a second day of ETF inflows, produces a relief rally in BTC and tech. The Oman explosion remains contained with no wider Hormuz escalation. Confirm by: BTC breaks above $66,000 with sustained ETF inflow follow-through and Nasdaq 100 recovers to flat or better before the close. Invalidate if: Hormuz tensions escalate further, or a second day of ETF outflows follows Friday's thin inflow.

Downside scenario: A strong NFP above 105,000 reinforces hawkish Fed pricing. The Oman terminal situation escalates. BTC breaks the $60,000 support level on volume. Tech extends its slide and the Dow gives back part of Thursday's record gain. Confirm by: BTC closes below $60,000, VIX rises above 20, and Nasdaq 100 falls more than 1.5% on the session. Invalidate if: ceasefire progress creates a broad risk-on reversal or NFP disappoints sharply.

What to Watch Next (Next 24 Hours)

  • 8:30 a.m. ET, May NFP: The headline number and any revision to April's figures will set the tone for the full session and likely Monday's open.
  • BTC ETF flows today and Monday: A second consecutive day of positive inflows shifts the narrative from the outflow streak breaking to a potential trend reversal.
  • Hormuz and Iran updates: Watch CENTCOM statements and Reuters live coverage for any official U.S. military response to the Oman terminal explosion and confirmation of the scale of Iranian crude rerouting through Iraq.
  • Broadcom and chip stocks at the open: Whether AVGO stabilizes or resumes selling after the NFP print will indicate whether Thursday's sector rotation trade continues or fades.

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the 13-day Bitcoin ETF outflow streak?
Three factors converged: institutional capital rotating from crypto into AI equities and high-profile IPOs, risk-off behavior driven by the Iran conflict and elevated oil prices lifting inflation expectations, and weakening on-chain momentum that triggered stop-loss selling among leveraged traders. Together they produced the longest consecutive outflow streak since spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in early 2024.

Does the outflow streak ending mean Bitcoin will recover?
Not automatically. Friday's $3.05 million inflow is small relative to the $4.4 billion that left over 13 sessions. It stops mechanical selling pressure but does not reverse the structural rotation. A sustained recovery would require consistent inflows over two to three weeks, stabilization above key moving averages, and reduced macro risk from both Fed policy and the Iran conflict.

Sources

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