Bitcoin is grinding near the $77,000 mark on Tuesday afternoon as a fresh research note from TD Cowen warns that the long-awaited US crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, may not clear the Senate this year. The combination of stalled regulation, persistent spot Bitcoin ETF outflows, and firm Treasury yields is putting a ceiling on price for now, even as oil-driven risk-off pressure eases slightly.

TL;DR

  • BTC is changing hands near $76.9K, holding inside the tight $76.6K to $77.3K intraday range it has traded all day.
  • TD Cowen says the political environment for the CLARITY Act has worsened and now sees passage this year as a long shot, with implementation potentially slipping to 2027 or beyond.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETFs have bled roughly $1.55 billion across six straight sessions, extending the trend we covered in today's earlier ETF flow note, with rate-cut hopes squeezed by sticky Treasury yields.
  • The macro backdrop is heavy: oil briefly topped $100, the dollar is firm, and risk appetite is leaning toward defensive equities rather than crypto beta.
  • Active traders should treat the $74.5K weekly low as the key support shelf and $78.3K as the level that needs to break for momentum to flip.

Bitcoin price action and the CLARITY Act delay

Spot Bitcoin opened the US session around $77,267 and slipped to $76,971 by mid morning, per Fortune and Yahoo Finance data. Intraday volatility has been low, with price hugging the $76,600 to $77,300 corridor. Ethereum is trading just above $2,110.

The headline catalyst pressuring sentiment came from TD Cowen's Washington Research Group, led by policy analyst Jaret Seiberg. In a note circulated Tuesday, Seiberg argued that the political environment around the CLARITY Act, the bipartisan crypto market structure bill, has deteriorated, and that passage in 2026 is now unlikely without direct intervention from President Trump. Earlier TD Cowen notes had already put the odds at roughly one in three, before slightly raising them to about 40 percent after the Senate Banking Committee advanced the bill on 14 May.

The committee vote passed 15 to 9, but the bill still needs 60 Senate votes to clear cloture. With 53 Republicans, that requires at least seven Democrats. Sticking points remain: an ethics provision pushed by Senator Thom Tillis, conflicts tied to Trump-linked venture World Liberty Financial, concerns about crypto rails used by sanctioned actors, and a fight over whether platforms can pay yield on stablecoins. We have been tracking the bill's path in our internal market briefings on chartdojo.io, and every procedural win has been paired with a fresh political hurdle.

Why this matters for Bitcoin and crypto markets

Crypto traders have spent most of 2026 pricing in a friendlier US regulatory regime. A delayed market structure bill complicates that thesis in three ways. It pushes institutional onboarding timelines further out, since asset managers and clearing venues have been waiting on legal clarity before scaling beyond existing ETF wrappers. It leaves stablecoin yield rules unresolved, which directly affects how much retail liquidity flows into exchanges through interest-bearing wallets. And it keeps the US in regulatory limbo while the European Union enforces its MiCA framework.

The flow data is consistent with this view. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have logged about $1.55 billion in outflows over the last six sessions, with BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC leading the redemptions. Net inflows since the start of 2026 have shrunk to roughly $536 million, a meaningful reset from the institutional demand story that drove BTC into late last year.

The macro picture is also tough. Treasury yields remain firm even after Trump signaled progress in Iran negotiations, and Brent crude briefly topped $100 earlier on Tuesday before fading. A firmer dollar and a defensive equity tone, with money rotating into mega-cap tech like Micron rather than long-duration speculation, leaves BTC without a clear bid.

Potential positives vs negatives

Potential positives:

  • The CLARITY Act has cleared the Senate Banking Committee, which is a real procedural milestone. If Trump steps in publicly and prioritizes the bill, the odds Seiberg quotes can move back toward 50 percent.
  • Bitcoin is holding a tight intraday range above its recent $74.5K weekly low, which historically allows positioning to reset before the next directional leg.
  • The Coinbase-incubated Base blockchain rolling out a model context protocol gateway to AI interfaces such as Claude and ChatGPT signals that crypto infrastructure is still attracting builder attention, even when prices stall.
  • The American Reserve Modernization Act proposal, which would lock government-held bitcoin in reserve for 20 years, supports the long-run scarcity narrative.

Potential negatives:

  • If CLARITY Act timing slides into 2027, institutional flows can stay subdued for quarters, which prolongs the current ETF outflow pattern.
  • Treasury yields and the dollar are still leaning the wrong way for crypto. A 10 year yield that refuses to break lower keeps the discount rate on speculative assets elevated.
  • Geopolitical shocks tied to the Strait of Hormuz, where Piper Sandler now expects the chokepoint to remain closed for months, can produce a sharp oil-led risk-off impulse that drags BTC down with it.
  • UK sanctions on the HTX exchange over Russia ties show that exchange-level enforcement risk is real and global, which can briefly stress liquidity and stablecoin flows.

What could happen from here

Base case. Bitcoin continues to chop inside roughly $75K to $79K over the next one to two weeks. The CLARITY Act remains stuck, ETF flows stay neutral to mildly negative, and macro headlines drive most of the intraday moves. Confirmation: BTC keeps closing inside that range and ETF flows stay near zero. Invalidation: a clean weekly close outside either bound.

Upside case. Trump publicly throws weight behind the CLARITY Act ahead of August recess, the Senate negotiates the ethics language into something workable, and ETF outflows reverse into inflows. In that scenario, BTC retakes $80K, then squeezes toward $84K to $86K as macro funds reload risk. Confirmation: a public Truth Social or speech endorsement from Trump plus two consecutive sessions of net spot ETF inflows above $300 million.

Downside case. A new oil shock or stronger than expected inflation print pushes US 10 year yields higher, ETF outflows accelerate, and the political fight over the CLARITY Act drags into the midterms. BTC breaks the $74.5K weekly low and tests $70K. Confirmation: a daily close below $74.5K on rising volume, paired with another billion plus weekly ETF outflow.

What traders should watch next

  • CLARITY Act headlines. Any concrete signal that Trump is personally pushing the bill, or that an ethics compromise is on the table, can move BTC quickly.
  • Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Watch IBIT and FBTC daily prints for a clean break of the six day outflow streak.
  • 10 year Treasury yield and DXY. A daily close below 4.30 percent on the 10 year, or a softer dollar, would loosen the macro grip on crypto.
  • Oil and the Strait of Hormuz. A sustained move back below $90 in Brent would remove a major risk-off pressure source for BTC.
  • Key BTC levels. Support: $76.6K (intraday floor), then $74.5K (weekly low). Resistance: $78.3K (recent swing high), then $80K (psychological).

Bottom line

Bitcoin is not crashing, but it is not breaking out either. The market is digesting a slower than expected US regulatory path, persistent ETF redemptions, and a macro backdrop that favors defensive equities over crypto beta. For active traders, the practical edge in this kind of tape is in execution: respecting the range, sizing for chop, and waiting for one of the catalysts above to actually trigger before pressing direction. We focus on this exact problem inside chartdojo.io, where AI-powered feedback grades each simulated entry against the live tape so traders can build real skills, not bad habits.

This article is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.

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Sources

Header image source: pexels by Marnie Griffiths. License: PEXELS.